A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
